The U.S. Travel Association has announced a projected decline of 6.3% in international travel to the U.S. for 2025, marking the first decrease since 2020. This downturn poses a significant threat, jeopardizing billions in economic expenditure and thousands of jobs. The advocacy group is urging government intervention to reverse this worrying trend.
Projected Decline in International Visitors
According to U.S. Travel, the anticipated drop will see international visitor counts decrease from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million in 2025, with a notable reduction in visits from Canada being a primary contributor to this decline. Meanwhile, visitation from other countries is expected to remain flat, thus compounding the overall drop.
Growth in Outbound Travel and Economic Implications
Contrastingly, outbound international travel from the U.S. is on the rise, leading to a projected travel trade deficit of approximately $70 billion for 2025. “While domestic travel remains stable,” U.S. Travel noted, “the sustained drop in international visitors threatens billions in spending and thousands of jobs.” This situation indicates a need for vital measures to rejuvenate international tourism.
Call for Action
In a statement, the association emphasized the potential for extraordinary growth in the coming decade, but only with decisive action. With challenges such as outdated systems, long visa processing times, and new deterrents for travelers, the U.S. must take steps to attract global visitors. The association advocates for the modernization of travel infrastructure, efficient entry processes, and a clear message that “America is open for business.”
Economic Impact of International Tourism
Despite the projected decline, international visitors are expected to contribute around $173 billion to the U.S. economy in 2025, maintaining travel as the nation’s largest services export. However, this figure reflects a 3.4% decrease from the previous year. Furthermore, predictions indicate that inbound visitation may not reach 2024 levels until 2027, even with major international events, including the FIFA World Cup soccer tournament, scheduled for 2026. U.S. Travel estimates that 70.4 million international visitors will arrive in 2026.
Risks to Future Travel
The U.S. also faces continuing risks to foreign travel due to expected increases in visa fees, extended wait times for visa applications and renewals, and diminishing positive sentiment in key markets. These elements are crucial factors contributing to a potential decline in international visitation.
Domestic Travel Market Resilience
On a brighter note, domestic travel is projected to thrive, with expected expenditures reaching $1.2 trillion in 2025. The total number of domestic travelers is forecasted to grow from 2.36 billion to 2.4 billion. U.S. Travel commented on consumer sentiment, stating that while there are concerns regarding inflation and economic conditions, Americans continue to prioritize travel experiences.
