Travel patterns between Canada and the United States have shown a marked decline, with significant drops in both air and car trips recorded in May 2025. According to recent data from Statistics Canada, approximately 488,000 Canadians returned from the U.S. by air in May, a decline of 24.2% compared to May 2024, equating to around 155,000 fewer air travelers. This outcome also reflects a decrease of 3.7% from the previous month, April 2025.
Automobile Travel Declines Significantly
Trips taken by car have not fared any better, with just under 1.3 million Canadians opting to drive back home—a significant drop of 38.1% compared to May 2024. Notably, the trend indicates that Canadians are still favoring vehicle travel over air travel, with more than three times as many people driving instead of flying to the United States.
Continued Downturn in Cross-Border Travel
The cumulative decline in cross-border travel surpasses 30% year-over-year. Previously released statistics from Stats Can indicated that April saw automobile returns from the U.S. plummet by 35.2%, alongside a 19.9% decrease in air travel compared to April 2024. This downward trend underscores an ongoing preference among Canadians to seek alternative travel destinations.
Rise in International Travel to Canada
In stark contrast to the dwindling travel from Canada to the U.S., Statistics Canada noted a 9.8% increase in return visits from overseas countries to Canada in May year-over-year. This indicates a shift in travel preferences, with many Canadians opting for holidays in places like Mexico, the Caribbean, and Europe, as cited by industry experts from Flight Centre Canada.
Impact of Political Climate on Travel
The slump in Canadian travel to the U.S. can be traced back to earlier political tensions, specifically remarks from former U.S. President Donald Trump concerning trade tariffs and his controversial comments regarding the status of Canada. These sentiments have seemingly influenced Canadians’ travel decisions, contributing to the ongoing decline.
Economic Implications for Tourism
The decrease in Canadian visitors poses a troubling outlook for the Canadian tourism sector. While the number of U.S. residents visiting Canada has also seen a slight decline—0.3% by air and 8.4% by vehicle—the severe drop in Canadian travelers has raised alarms within the industry. Earlier predictions from the U.S. Travel Association warned that even a 10% reduction in Canadian visits could lead to $2.1 billion in lost revenue and the possibility of 14,000 job losses. Current figures suggest a drop closer to 30%, extending the expected economic challenges.
Future Outlooks for U.S. Travel
Forecasts from Tourism Economics indicate that the United States is also bracing for a 9% dip in international arrivals in 2025, corresponding to an $8.5 billion decline in visitor spending—marking a 4.7% reduction from the previous year.
Budget Cuts and Travel Marketing Challenges
Adding to the uncertainties surrounding tourism, reports indicate that a U.S. Senate committee is contemplating an 80% budget cut to Brand USA. Critics argue that such reductions could significantly impair the country’s international travel marketing efforts, further affecting inbound tourism.
The landscape of cross-border travel between Canada and the U.S. continues to evolve, with Canadians exploring new destinations as political and economic factors reshape their travel preferences. The focus now turns to how these trends will develop in the coming months and years.
